MARKET SIZING
Know if the bet is worth placing.
Before you back a new market, a new category, or a bigger push into one you’re already in, the question worth getting right is simple: is it worth going after, and how much of it can you actually win? That’s the market sizing we do, so you commit hard or walk away clean.
Three ways to read the same opportunity.
How do you tell if a market is genuinely worth entering, whether you’re a B2B firm eyeing a new region or a D2C brand weighing a new category? You size the slice you could realistically win, not the headline figure the whole category likes to quote, then check whether the return, the timing and the risk still hold once the optimism is stripped out. Done honestly, that lands you on a clear go, a wait, or a no you’re glad you caught early. We work it from the three angles that actually decide it: whether the money comes back, whether you can run it, and whether the call still looks right a year on. For a mid-market company those aren’t three people in a head office, they’re usually you, wearing three hats in the same week.
i.The Money
Will it pay back
$2.4M
The average cost of a market entry that never should have been approved.
Deloitte · Market Entry Practice, 2024Money put behind the wrong read rarely comes back. Five things worth being sure of before you sign anything.
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Sizing
Is the market genuinely as big as it looks, or only big on paper? We size the demand you can actually reach, so you’re not planning off a headline number that was never yours to win.
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Returns
What does the cautious version actually look like? We run the numbers across a good case, a likely one and a bad one, so you know what you’re signing up for if the optimism doesn’t hold.
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Timing
How long before the money starts coming back? We map when it turns, and the honest signals that would tell you to pause and think again.
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Risk
What could genuinely go wrong, and how badly? We map the exposures that actually move the outcome, not a generic list, so the nasty surprises are on the table before they cost you.
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The exit
If you needed to step back out, could you? We look at how hard the exit really is, and what walking away would cost, well before you’re committed to staying.
ii.The Running
Can you deliver it
18mo
Median time from green light to first revenue when the move was run on hunches instead of homework.
Dromley Intelligence · Field PracticeWinning the go-ahead is the easy part. These five are about whether it holds together once it’s real.
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Access
What has to happen before you can even sell? The approvals, registrations and quiet local rules that gate entry, mapped up front, which for a market like India is often where the real timeline hides.
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Channels
How does it actually reach the customer? We check whether the routes to market you’re counting on genuinely exist, or whether you’d be building them from scratch on someone else’s timeline.
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People
Who runs this once it’s live? We look honestly at whether you have the people on the ground to make it work, or a gap you’ll feel about six months in.
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Delivery
Can you keep up once it works? Winning the demand is one thing and meeting it is another, so we pressure-test whether your supply and delivery can carry the growth you’re hoping for.
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Cost
Does it still make money at real scale? We work out the true cost and the margin that survives once you’re actually operating, not the tidy version that only works on a spreadsheet.
iii.The Long View
Will the call hold
42%
Of market entries underperform projections, most because the assessment was wrong before execution began.
McKinsey · State of Market Entry, 2024Someone has to answer for this call later. Five things the answer has to survive.
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Fit
Does this actually belong in your business? We look at how well it fits what you already do, and whether the strengths you have carry over or get left at the border.
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Downside
What’s the worst version that could realistically happen? We put a real number on the downside, instead of burying it in an average that never actually occurs.
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Scrutiny
Would it hold up if someone senior pushed hard on it? We keep the method and the assumptions in plain view, so nothing rests on take-our-word-for-it.
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Knock-on
If it went wrong, what else would it touch? We look at the knock-on to the customers, partners and standing you already have, not just the market you’re entering.
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Room to change
What does it cost to change your mind? We cost the way out and flag the spend you can’t get back, so you keep your options open for as long as possible.
How the sizing is actually done.
The frameworks we use, where the numbers come from, what you walk away with, and the stages the work moves through. None of the method is hidden, and you can trace any figure back to where it came from.
Anyone can hand you a market size. We hand you one that holds up when someone pushes on it.
Dromley Intelligence · How we work- TAM/SAM/SOM
- Porter’s Five Forces
- PESTEL
- Build/Buy/Partner
- Scenario modeling
We don’t lean on one source and hope. Official trade and government data sets the baseline, industry figures get checked against it rather than taken on trust, financial benchmarks come from the Bloomberg and Reuters terminals the banks use, and we go straight to people in the market, real operators and buyers, to test what a spreadsheet can’t tell you. Where the sources disagree, we dig until we know why.
A market sizing model with the assumptions written out in plain sight. A read on how attractive the industry really is. A recommendation on how to enter. A financial model across three scenarios. A risk register. And a clear go or no-go you can take to whoever signs off.
4 to 6 weeks
- i.Frame the question
- ii.Dig in
- iii.Pull it together
- iv.Give you the answer
What you’re getting, and what it lets you decide.
What this work covers, and the calls it puts you in a position to make. Together, that’s the whole of it.
Is: a straight answer on whether to go.
Not: a report that restates the question.
Is: the numbers tested for when things don’t go to plan.
Not: a marketing plan.
Is: a clear go or no-go you can stand behind.
Not: a competitor scan.
Is: a sized, checked, worked-through answer.
Not: a primer on the sector.
It either answers the question well enough to act on, or it isn’t finished yet.
Whether to go in.
Whether to go at all, answered with a sized market and the numbers tested under pressure, not a gut call.
When to move.
The right window to move, weighed against what competitors are doing and how the ground is shifting.
How to enter the market.
Whether to build it, buy it, or partner your way in, chosen on what you can actually pull off.
How much to put in.
How much to put in, set at the level that still works even if the optimistic case doesn’t.
What to keep watching.
The early signs that would change the call, named at the start so you’re watching the right things.
When to walk away.
The conditions that would tell you to stop, agreed up front, so pulling out is a plan and not a panic.
Reading the market opportunity.
Most market sizing is quietly built to say yes. The number grows just big enough to wave through a move someone had already decided on, and the report is there to give it cover. We work the other way round, starting from what you could realistically win rather than the figure the whole category likes to quote, because the reachable number is the only one you can actually build a plan on.
That usually means the size we hand back is smaller than the one you walked in with, and far more use to you. The demand you can’t reach is taken out, the share competitors already hold is set aside, and the assumptions that were passing as facts get checked one at a time. What’s left is the part that’s genuinely yours to go and win.
None of this needs a year or a six-figure retainer. For a mid-market company the honest read is usually the difference between a confident yes, a patient wait, and a clean no that saves you a small fortune. That’s the whole job here. Not a bigger number, a truer one.
Weighing a market you can’t afford to get wrong?
Tell us the market you’re eyeing and what’s riding on it. We’ll size what you can realistically win, pressure-test the case, and come back with a straight answer you can take to the table. No brochure, no obligation, a real starting point.
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