MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Market Opportunity Assessment
Structured market sizing and feasibility analysis that answers the foundational question: is this market worth the investment? TAM/SAM/SOM quantification, demand-supply modelling, trade flow mapping, and evidence-based go/no-go frameworks grounded in 23 years of advisory practice.
Three lenses on a single question.
Market opportunity reads differently depending on who is asking. The investor sees capital. The operator sees execution. The board sees defensibility. The assessment that survives all three is the one worth acting on.
i.Investor
Capital and conviction
$2.4M
The average cost of a market entry that never should have been approved.
Deloitte · Market Entry Practice, 2024Capital committed under the wrong assumptions rarely returns. Five questions worth answering before the cheque is written.
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Sizing
Is the addressable market verifiable, not just plausible? Triangulation from customs, industry, and consumption data — verified at source, never extrapolated from headlines.
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Returns
What does the conservative scenario actually look like? Financial feasibility tested across optimistic, base, and downside paths.
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Timing
How long until cash flow inflects? Trigger points for reassessment defined, not aspirational.
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Risk
What are the consequential downside scenarios? Political, regulatory, and infrastructure exposure mapped with confidence intervals.
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Liquidity
Is the exit path mapped or imagined? Secondary market depth, strategic-acquirer landscape, and reversal cost all surfaced before commitment.
ii.Operator
Execution and access
18mo
Median time from board approval to first revenue when market entry was assumption-led.
Dromley Advisory · Operator PracticeExecution is where the thesis meets the ground. Five questions about whether the engine can actually run.
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Access
What regulatory approvals gate revenue? Registration pathways, certification timelines, and non-tariff barriers identified before kick-off.
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Channels
Does distribution infrastructure actually exist? Channel partner availability, route-to-market economics, and local-content obligations made explicit.
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Talent
Who runs this on the ground? Senior local hires, expatriate dependency, and succession risk addressed up front.
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Supply
Can production scale with demand? Capacity utilisation, input dependency, and import lead-times stress-tested against the demand model.
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Cost
What’s the unit economics at production scale? Landed cost, fully-loaded margins, and the breakeven volume known before market entry, not after.
iii.Board
Strategy and defensibility
42%
Of market entries underperform projections, most because the assessment was wrong before execution began.
McKinsey · State of Market Entry, 2024The board is accountable for the conviction. Five questions a defensible recommendation has to answer.
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Fit
Does this market sit inside the strategic perimeter? Adjacency to current operations, capability transfer, and portfolio coherence demonstrated.
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Risk
What is the consequential loss case? Worst-credible downside quantified, not just probability-weighted base case.
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Governance
Can the recommendation withstand audit? Source-traced deliverables, named methodology, and critical assumptions surfaced for review.
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Reputation
Does failure here damage adjacent markets? Spillover into existing customer relationships, regulator standing, and brand permission examined.
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Optionality
What does reversal cost if the market doesn’t develop? Exit pathway costed, contractual commitments mapped, and irreversible spend identified.
The work, made explicit.
The analytical frameworks we apply, the sources we triangulate, the deliverables you receive, and the phases the work moves through. Nothing concealed in the methodology. The audit trail is part of the work.
We don’t size markets. We build evidence that survives scrutiny.
Dromley · Methodology Statement- TAM/SAM/SOM
- Porter’s Five Forces
- PESTEL
- Build/Buy/Partner
- Scenario modeling
Customs & trade data verifies industry reports. Government statistics anchor demand modeling. Bloomberg and Reuters terminals supply financial benchmarks. Primary research (expert interviews, channel checks) tests claims that desk research alone cannot. All triangulated against the proprietary advisory record.
Sizing model with assumptions documented. Industry attractiveness assessment. Entry-mode recommendation. Financial feasibility model (three scenarios). Risk register. Board-ready go/no-go with confidence intervals.
8–12 wks
- i.Scope
- ii.Investigate
- iii.Synthesize
- iv.Recommend
What this work commits to, and what it equips you to decide.
The scope of this engagement, and the decisions its outputs are built to support. Held together, they define the work.
Is: investment-decision evidence.
Not: a literature review.
Is: feasibility tested under uncertainty.
Not: marketing strategy.
Is: a defensible go/no-go.
Not: a competitive scan.
Is: a sized, sourced, modelled answer.
Not: a sector primer.
The work either holds the scope and equips the decision, or it is not yet the work.
Enter or skip.
The go/no-go question, answered with sized market evidence and risk-adjusted feasibility, not opinion.
When to enter.
The timing window, modelled against competitor moves, regulatory shifts, and capital availability.
How to enter.
Build, buy, or partner: chosen against operational feasibility, not preference.
What to fund.
Capital allocation tied to scenario survival. The number that holds across all three paths.
What to monitor.
The leading indicators that would change the call: defined at delivery, tracked after.
What to walk away from.
The conditions that would reverse the recommendation. Built in, not retrofitted.
Reading the market opportunity.
Dromley reads markets as architectures of decision, not as forecasts of growth. The first read is for the seams: where capital flow would meet operational reality.
The second is for the assumptions hiding as if they were facts. The third is for the conditions that would reverse the recommendation before it’s signed.
Findings hold across all three readings, or return to scope. That is the practice, applied here: the sizing is not the work; the sized model is. The recommendation is not the deliverable; the defended recommendation is.
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